Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 launches today, another in a seemingly endless string of enormous November releases that are coming rapid fire every few days or so. But given that it’s Call of Duty, likely destined to be the biggest game of the year, that’s its own category of special.
Black Ops 3 has a very important job this year, however. It might be Activision’s best chance at reversing the recent downward trend that has each Call of Duty underselling the last installment, something that has gone on for three years now.
Activision has been fuzzy with Call of Duty sales numbers for a while now. They used to shout them from the rooftops, as they broke records year after year. But by all accounts, the series peaked (sales-wise) at Modern Warfare 3. By most estimates since then, Black Ops 2 sold less than MW3, Ghosts sold less than Black Ops 2, and Advanced Warfare, despite being more well-received with Ghosts, sold less than it as well.
Black Ops 3 could be different, however. This is a return to one of the most beloved sub-series in the game’s history. Obviously everyone will have a different opinion on this, but it’s a pretty common thought that the original Black Ops had one of the best campaigns in COD history, Black Ops 2 had one of the best multiplayer components, and both games have the beloved Zombies mode. Now, we have Treyarch designing Black Ops 3with three years to work on it, and if this game can’t outsell Advanced Warfare, that’s not a great sign for Call of Duty.
Yes, the series is so massive that even a “poor-selling” installment like Advanced Warfare can still be the best-selling game of the year, but that won’t always be the case if the numbers keep going down. The problem is that after this, the series is probably going to go back to brand new or at least newer sub-series that are less popular thanBlack Ops.
Infinity Ward is up next year, and my prediction is that they’re going to take Call of Dutyback to World War II with a throwback game, because making Call of Duty: Ghosts 2 probably isn’t what anyone wants to see, given the reception of that game. There is a remote chance that they could show up with Modern Warfare 4, given the MW3 was the sales peak of the series, but I’m still pulling for WWII. After that, Sledgehammer will almost certainly given another shot with Advanced Warfare 2, where the first game seemed more like the base for a new long-running series, unlike Ghosts.
If you asked me months ago whether Black Ops 3 would be able to reverse this recent sales, trend I would have said yes without hesitation. It still might, but there are a lot of factors working against it.
First, we know the quality of the game itself, and it’s…pretty good, currently holding at an 85 on Metacritic. That’s a few points up from both Ghosts and Advanced Warfare, but on par with Halo 5. Though given the rarity of a new Halo game, and the common presence of a new Call of Duty, I think Halo’s score weighs more.
The problem is that it’s going to be tough to be a “pretty good” shooter in holiday season this fall. I know we have this conversation every year, but this is honestly one of the most stacked release seasons I have ever seen, with massive game after massive game debuting. In addition to Halo 5, there’s Star Wars: Battlefront, Assassin’s Creed Syndicate, Rise of the Tomb Raider and of course Fallout 4, which is coming out just four days from now. And those games are just from a tiny little pocket in November. There’s also heavy hitters like Metal Gear Solid V and Destiny: The Taken King still lurking around.
This is not just Call of Duty vs. Battlefield, which used to be the main battle we saw for a few years running. This is Call of Duty vs. some of the biggest games to be released in years, and I’m not sure if it can capture fan interest to the extent it needs to in order to outsell its predecessors.
Maybe it can. I don’t want to underestimate the power of the Black Ops brand, and I fully expect the always-accessible Call of Duty to outsell pretty much every game on this list (but I’m keeping a close eye on Fallout 4 sales). But after this year, I’m not sure when Activision will have another chance to release a game to really boost fan interest, and if this trend continues, the phrase “of course Call of Duty is the year’s best selling game” may not stay commonplace for long.
0 comments:
Post a Comment